Global Tanker Exports Hit $14.1 BN Record: China, Korea Capture 82% Market Share

Global tanker exports reached a record $14.1 billion in the June quarter, nearly doubling the previous high of about $7.5 billion in 2017 and surpassing the $6.1 billion noted just a year ago.

The recent increase lacks widespread support.

It is a focused narrative about two dominant shipbuilding nations, China and South Korea, strengthening their control over a market shaped by fleet renewal and geopolitical upheaval.

https://x.com/econovisuals/status/2120162060600558044

China’s 201% Leap Redraws Leadership Map

China's tanker exports surged 201% from a year ago to $6.5 billion. This remarkable growth accounted for 46% of global exports and was responsible for 54% of the overall increase in the global market.

South Korea achieved a remarkable $5.1 billion, reflecting a 92% increase, while contributing an additional 30% to the incremental volume.

Together, the two nations currently dominate approximately 82% of global tanker exports, leaving a mere $2.5 billion for all other exporters collectively. China surpassed South Korea in the last three months of 2025 and has since expanded its advantage.

Order Books Confirm Structural Shift

The export data is followed by a more significant change in order books. In the March quarter, Chinese shipyards dominated the global newbuilding contracting landscape, securing 70% of the market share, while their Korean counterparts captured 20%.

In crude tankers, Chinese shipyards dominate with 82% of the capacity ordered this year and account for 70% of the existing orderbook, as reported by BIMCO data.

The crude tanker orderbook has hit an unprecedented 130 million deadweight tons, representing 27% of the current fleet, with deliveries planned through 2030.

Geopolitics Inflates Demand, Distorts Signals

Some of the demand for tankers is structurally artificial. Danish Ship Finance estimates that around 1,800 vessels are currently in operation solely due to extended voyage durations compared to 2019.

Of these, approximately 560 are reliant on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the potential to re-enter the market within weeks following a reopening.

In September, VLCC spot rates surged past $500,000 per day, a significant increase from approximately $132,000 prior to the escalation of the Iran conflict, as reported by Allied Shipbroking data referenced by Reuters.

As of September, owners have placed orders for 217 Very Large Crude Carriers this year, significantly surpassing the total of 93 ordered throughout all of 2025.

S. Korea’s Capacity Ceiling Limits Response

South Korea’s impressive export numbers conceal an underlying structural limitation. Korean shipbuilders are facing challenges related to labour constraints and restricted yard capacity.

Employment in the sector declined by 44% from 2014 to 2024, with skilled workers now representing approximately 28% of the workforce in shipyards.

Korean shipyards currently have approximately three years of secured work; however, they are unable to rapidly increase their capacity to pursue additional tanker orders.

This situation is leading some owners to consider Chinese shipyards, even though Korea maintains a technical advantage in high-value segments such as LNG carriers.

Replacement Cycle Underpins Multi-Year Runway

The demand is not purely speculative. About 21% of the crude tanker fleet and 17% of the product tanker fleet have now surpassed 20 years of age, which is generally the threshold for considering recycling.

With the global orderbook reaching a 17-year peak of 191 million compensated gross tons and 57% of 2026 contracting set for delivery post-2028, the export increase indicates a prolonged replacement cycle rather than a temporary surge.

For China and South Korea, the focus has shifted from the existence of demand to identifying which shipyard can provide steel ahead of the market cycle's shift.

(Edited by Rahul Karunakar; rahul.karunakar@skaah.media)

(Please note: - As no single customs agency tracks global trade in real time, the $14.1 billion figure is a synthesized aggregate compiled from three primary customs datasets under Harmonized System (HS) Code 890120 (Tankers). (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/tankers)

- As UN Comtrade sometimes experiences reporting lags for recent quarters, the analyses combine direct monthly releases from GACC and KCS with available UN Comtrade mirror data to calculate the complete quarterly global total.)