ING Sees Brent at $77 as OPEC Fragility Offsets Gas Glut

ING’s base case for Brent to average $77 per barrel (bbl) in 2027v is a low-conviction call built on a paradox: oil flows from the Persian Gulf are near pre-war levels, but the way those barrels move remains deeply abnormal.

Tanker shipping rates have surged, reflecting inefficient routing and persistent risk premiums.

The bank anticipates sporadic tensions between the US and Iran, yet expects no prolonged interruptions, facilitating the accumulation of a surplus.

This view sits below Goldman Sachs’ revised $88 average and a broader analyst range of $80–$95v.

The disparity is significant.

If ING's analysis holds true, it suggests that the market is assigning excessive value to geopolitical risk. If it is wrong, the downside for consumers is limited.

OPEC’s Cohesion Problem

The bolder call is political. ING thinks that after the UAE leaves in early 2026, more countries will leave as well.

Venezuela is the most likely choice because Washington has a stronger hold on its oil industry since Maduro was captured. However, the Gulf is where the bigger risk is.

Iraq has already shown that it doesn't agree with the output goals.

Since the UAE no longer has to follow any quotas, it is pumping record amounts.

This could be a good example for other members who see caps as limits instead of promises. A weaker OPEC adds to the supply on a market that is already oversupplied, which supports ING's bearish view on oil.

TTF Sub-€40: A Bold Gas Call

When it comes to the gas prediction, ING diverges most sharply from consensus. European TTF prices have strengthened in 2026 on Middle East LNG disruptions.

ING says that mean reversion is on the way: When the Persian Gulf LNG returns to normal in early 2027, high prices destroy demand, people switch from gas to coal, and there is a chance of a mild El Niño winter.

The EIA predicts that US LNG export capacity will rise by almost 30% by 2027. When you add in new volumes from Qatar, the bank sees prices falling below €40/MWh by the end of 2027.

However, Goldman Sachs recently raised its TTF prediction for 2027 to €51/MWh, citing risks in the Hormuz supply chain and uncertain winter weather.

Citi has warned of possible price increases above €100/MWh.

The Political Signal

The idea that diplomacy tends to return is the basis of these calls. European TTF prices have strengthened in 2026 on Middle East LNG disruptions.

The unspoken conditions are a deal between the US and Iran, a working Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC working together.

There are no guarantees.

It wasn't inevitable that the UAE would leave; Venezuela's path is still up for debate; and Qatar's LNG repairs could take years, not months.

The $77 price of oil and the low price of petrol below €40 are not signs of a calm world. They tell us that the world will stop getting worse.

For traders, the more important question is whether the risk premium built into current prices can last through even a partial normalisation.

ING doesn't agree. The market hasn't decided yet.

(Edited by Rahul Karunakar; rahul.karunakar@skaah.media)