Israel's Political Reboot: Eisenkot Has the Mandate, Not the Math

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has officially asked Gadi Eisenkot, who is the leader of the Yashar party and was Chief of Staff of the IDF, to put together the next government.

The event on Sunday in Jerusalem was a huge change in Israeli politics.

Benjamin Netanyahu is not in charge for the first time in more than ten years. But the title hides a harsh mathematical truth.

Eisenkot has the support of 67 Knesset members, but his group of parties from the right, the middle, and the left only has 48 seats.

He has to do it, but he doesn't know how to do the math. The moment when a suggestion turns into an alliance is when governments are made or broken.

The Arab Parties Hold the Keys, and the Coalition Knows It

A historic surprise came in the election on October 27: The fact that Arab parties won a record 19 seats broke a deadlock in the Knesset.

Eisenkot needs 61 seats, and Ra'am and the Joint List are the only way to get them. His own supporters, on the other hand, are already moving against the idea.

Avigdor Lieberman, Eisenkot's most important partner, has said again in public that he is against an Arab-backed minority government and sees it as a security risk.

The main problem with Eisenkot's job is that he was given power with Arab backing, but his partners won't make it official, which limits him.

Eisenkot is trying to make a square by calling for a "national emergency government" that includes Likud defectors and Arab parties as a safety net from the outside. It's like walking on a tightrope with no safety net.

The Market Signal: Shekel Weakness and Budget Paralysis

The financial markets are not waiting for the alliance talks to end. Since the election, the shekel has lost almost 4.5% of its value against the dollar, reaching a low point not seen in seven months.

Even though it went up sharply on Friday, the Tel Aviv 35 index ended the week down almost 3%.

The message from investors is clear: uncertainty about politics now costs money. The budget for 2027 has been put on hold, and the fiscal deficit is slowly rising from 3.3% of GDP to 4% of GDP, which is still manageable.

The external factor is more worrisome: US President Donald Trump's statement that $4 billion in annual military help could be cut off has added a level of strategic risk that the new government cannot ignore. The markets are not pricing in a honeymoon, but for instability.

The Netanyahu Factor: Not Gone, Just Waiting

Benjamin Netanyahu is still in charge of Likud, the party with the most seats (27), which is the largest single party. He hasn't given up the fight. His new plan is to make things hard for Eisenkot: stop him from building a stable alliance, make things fail, and then either run for office again or be an important part of a future unity government.

Eisenkot has openly asked Likud members to join him, but he has left out Netanyahu's extremist allies. This is a calculated risk to split Likud and get rid of moderates. The 28-day deadline, which can be extended by 14 days, is like a timer.

If Eisenkot fails, Herzog could theoretically put Netanyahu on trial, but the math in the Knesset that stopped him from doing so before hasn't changed. It is now normal for there to be a fifth election in less than four years. It was once just a scary thought.

The Regional Clock is Ticking Faster Than the Coalition Clock

In his inauguration speech, President Herzog was unusually direct about the outside world. He talked about Iran's constant threats, the need to move forward with Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza, and the need to start building a political path after the war.

The words above are not for a ceremony. The next Israeli government, whether Eisenkot or someone else leads it, will take over a conflict that is still going on on many fronts and a relationship with the White House that is very tense. Eisenkot, who is in the military and has never been in politics before, is promising a "national emergency government" because the security issue can't wait for coalition bargaining.

The strange thing is that the political system takes up time that is needed for protection.

Gadi Eisenkot is in charge, has a history in the military, and has said that he wants to be in charge. What he needs is a stable coalition that doesn't depend on partners that his own allies don't want to work with.

Israeli risk is already being re-priced by the markets.

The clock for 28 days is on. If Eisenkot can't get 61 of his 67 suggestions to become actual votes, Israel will not only have a political crisis, but it will also have shown its enemies and investors that its political system can't make a stable government when it needs one the most.

This order is just the start; it's not the end.

(Edited by Rahul Karunakar; rahul.karunakar@skaah.media)