Climate & COP31: The 12-Year Heat Streak and the Money Fight in Antalya

The World Meteorological Organisation released its State of the Climate Update 2026 on the first day of COP31. The title is no longer a warning. It's a decision.

It is now proven that the twelve years from 2015 to 2026 were the warmest in the instrumental record's entire length.

From January to September 2026, the average temperature around the world was about 1.47°C higher than it was before industrialisation. There have been four years in a row that were warmer than any other years ever recorded.

This blip is not part of a cycle. It is a change in the structure.

The real story coming out of Antalya isn't just the science, though. The clash between that science and the money is what it is.

The El Niño Wildcard Nobody Is Ready For

When she spoke to the press, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo didn't hold back. She told them that the 2026–2027 El Niño is "off the charts" and unlike any other event they have seen.

This is the real number.

When sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise by 0.5°C above normal, the WMO calls it an El Niño. From November 2026 to January 2027, that difference is expected to be almost four times that level.

It's a harsh and clear implication. The rising effect of El Niño usually peaks a year after it starts. That's why 2024 broke all the records. Because of this, 2027 is about to become yet another record-breaking year.

Food prices are a market signal.

A separate study from the UNDP was released at COP31. It said that a mere 5% rise in food prices in developing economies could push 37 million people below the upper-middle-income poverty line in 2026 alone. It would cost up to $36 billion to protect vulnerable households early on. That amount goes up to 73 billion dollars if you wait until the damage is done.

That's not money for climate change. That is a savings rate for people's pain.

The Emissions Picture: A Dip That Doesn't Matter

This is where the data makes the optimists feel bad.

This week at COP31, the Global Carbon Budget was presented. It says that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will go down by 0.4% in 2026. Renewable energy is a part of that. Part of the problem is that the war in Iran is slowing down the economy, which is not ideal.

However, the big number is a trick. Total emissions are expected to reach a record 43.3 billion tons this year, when changes in land use, cutting down trees, and peat fires started by people are all taken into account.

In May 2026, the amount of CO2 in the air was higher than 428 parts per million. This was about 50% higher than levels before industrialisation and higher than at any time in the last 2 million years. In 2025, the amount of fossil fuels used went up by 0.9%, with record highs for oil, coal, and gas.

The curve for pollution is not changing shape. The temperature has reached a steady point where the 1.5°C threshold from Paris is no longer a threat.

Copernicus data already shows that 2026 will almost certainly be the second year in a row that temperatures rise above 1.5°C, after 2024. The 1.47°C number given by the WMO for January to September is an average over nine months.

Once El Niño strikes for good, the number for the whole year will be higher.

The Antalya Money Fight: Who Pays for Adaptation?

The COP31 agenda was approved on the first day, which is a procedural win that keeps things from getting stuck during the first week.

But the deal that got it there shows exactly where the problems are.

The African Group, which is made up of 54 countries, pushed for two specific things on the agenda: one on trade and one on the promise to triple funding for adaptation.

Both were turned down.

What made it through was a separate work program on climate finance that was based on Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which says that rich countries have to help developing countries with resources.

The G77+China group, which has 134 members, is using that work plan to ask rich countries for public money. The European Union is fighting back, saying that the issue of money was settled at COP29 in Baku and that the Mutirão decision's "delicate commitments" are being brought up again.

There are not many small numbers on the table. President Murat Kurum of COP31 reminded the delegates of the Baku goal, which is to get at least $300 billion a year for poor countries by 2035. He also called for $1.3 trillion a year from all sources.

But there is less money in the cash box. Budgets for foreign aid have been cut by big donors. The Trump administration is putting pressure on multilateral development banks to give up on their climate goals.

The fight in Antalya isn't about getting ahead. It has to do with whether the promises made now will hold up in 2026.

The Ocean is Doing the Heavy Lifting — and Paying for It

There is one measure in the WMO report that needs more attention than it is getting. For the tenth year in a row, the ocean's heat content set a new record. At its all-time high, the sea level is putting 900 million people who live along low-lying coasts in danger.

Since the Industrial Revolution, more than 90% of the extra heat that greenhouse gases have trapped has been soaked up by the ocean. That is not an effect of the drug. That is the planet's heat shield, and it is getting full.

From 1960 to 2005, the rate of ocean heat gain was about half of what it was between 2005 and 2025. This is speeding up, not going in a straight line. And it can't be undone in human time; the IPCC has made it clear that warming and acidification of the deep ocean will last for hundreds of years.

This is not a vague idea for fisheries, coastal economies, and monsoon systems. It is a risk to the balance sheet.

What to Watch in Week Two

Whether COP31 produces more than a communiqué will depend on three signs.

The first thing is the adaptation financial baseline.

Belém said they would "at least triple" aid for adaptation by 2035, but the text never said what the starting year was or where the money would come from.

The group of Least Developed Countries wants $120 billion a year in grants. They don't want loans. It will be a big step forward if that number makes it into the formal text. It's theatre if it stays in the hallways.

The second part is the fossil fuel plan. The Brazilian presidency at COP30 laid out a plan for moving away from fossil fuels based on supply, demand, and economic dependence. It is the plan for COP31 to talk about on November 10. Check to see if the big economies use it as a guide or just an idea.

Third, the promise to get electricity. A goal to electrify 35% of the world's economy by 2035, up from just over 20% now, is being pushed by the Turkish president. It is not part of the consensus-based talks, so it can move quickly or be ignored completely.

The Bottom Line

It's not a surprise that the WMO has a twelve-year heat record. A trend that has been clear for ten years has been confirmed. What's new is how fast things are speeding up and how small the political window is getting.

Based on facts, 2027 is likely to be worse. The UNDP says it costs twice as much to wait. Based on the data on emissions, the curve isn't changing shape fast enough to make a difference on the needed scale.

Ankara won't be able to fix this. But it will show if the international system can still turn scientific agreement into financial promises or if the fight over money is the only thing that matters.

SKAAH Media will be tracking the developments throughout the event.